This piece has been widely shared around the internet, and your comments are great!
Note: you only need to leave your comment once—I will see it, Substack sends me notifications. I have quite a lot on at the moment so any comments from me may be a bit slow, but I do read every one.
Policy makers pushed industry out of the US and the UK by a number of measures, each with good objectives. Chief among them were the punitive approach to environmental regulation and payroll taxes. The former ignored the real benefits of the polluting industries. The latter reduced the marginal value of labor, particularly at the low end.
I fear the former will be the most damaging. In the UK we've just got rid of the last of our steel manufacturing. At a time when war is looming, we've removed our ability to manufacture the most important material for equipment. I'm sure this will end well.
A new US artillery ammunition plant required a hydraulic press, which was sourced from a Turkish company. The robots in the plant are made by a German company...which is owned by a Chinese company. See
I doubt that environmental regulations had a lot to do with the declining share of manufacturing in US/UK. I do not doubt that many are not cost effective, but the scale of the change demands something bigger, like fiscal deficits that required the Fed to have higher interest rates that attracted more foreign financial capital that overvalued the dollar and depressed exports.
There are two sides to this, one to your point about not being cost effective goes back to the unions and the thatcher/raegan era. Some industries were indeed not cost effective on their own merit and kept alive by greedy union bosses and corrupt politicians. But todays point is the current closures are being done to 'reduce carbon footprint'. The most recent example is talbot steel, Tata the parent company have closed it due to regulations making it 'too expensive' while politicians dance about reducing our 'carbon footprint'. What they've actually done is relocated the exact same plant to India where there's ,more relaxed regs, cheaper (read slave) wages, and are now shipping the same steel back to Britain. Thats a net increase in carbon output due to shipping but of course thats not the point. NIMBY green in name only idiocy.
Cost effectiveness is not a primary consideration for national security. Especially when it comes to manufacturing food, clothing, military equipment, ammunition and logistcs.
Unfortunately, they will be the biggest losers from the growth stagnation policies Trump is talking about: tax cuts and deficits, legal immigration restrictions, and more trade restriction.
I would ask you to explain the logic underlying that conclusion but considering we've had stagflation under 4 years of the opposite policies to your trump proposal I'll just let the evidence speak for itself.
Yes, although Pauline Hanson’s background is closer to Vance’s than Le Pen’s (as in, genuinely working-class and not to the—political—manor born like Le Pen).
Ah, thanks. I looked up 'Hanson' on Google and all I could find was a fresh-faced trio of musical brothers. I doubted it was them. Now you have told me who it is, I vaguely remember Pauline Hanson from a few years ago.
Great insight Helen <3. I knew nothing about Vance until I read this and it paints a very clear picture. In terms of ruling dynamics I would argue trump-Vance is the high-low teaming up against the middle.
I would say perhaps against the upper middle, but there are plenty of LIV's across the socio-economic spectrum. And even when they are not exactly LIV's, they may still have TDS!
Thanks, that is informative. I know nothing about him but listened to one interview clip. He has disturbing views about women and abortion and baby boys. Abortion in cases of rape or incest shouldn't happen because an inconvenience for the woman is not equivalent to the right to a baby boys to survive.
I might have less pause about that if he hadn't specified baby boys. My mind then goes to the imaginary bill... after amniocentesis, the rape victim may get an abortion if the fetus is DNA female but is not allowed to get an abortion if the fetus is DNA male.
What if the baby is being exposed to endocrine disrupting hormones in utero and is gender dyshporic/ trans male or female? Can the raped woman have an abortion or not? .....
The "pause" that Rust Belt cities should have given is real but misplaced.
There were always going to be downsides for people, regions and industries whose livelihoods we affected by technological changes that made is cheaper to import low productivity manufactures abroad. This was then put on steroids by the decision of China to join the world economy. (The decision to grant China MFN status by joining the WTO was a detail that did not wag the de-dog.) But this kind of challenge coud have been no more than a hiccough if the US had good (expansive) monetary and (low deficit) fiscal policies at the time of transition. That kind of economy would have had faster growth and a smaller trade deficits if not a surplus, with exports of new manufactures offsetting the decline in those affected by imports.
The policies that undermined manufactured export growth were exacerbated by the systemic focus of the US in trade negotiations on reducing foreign barriers to payments for US trademark and intellectual property over barriers to US exports of manufactures. (We were pretty aggressive on agricultural exports.)
Nevertheless, these sins of omission should not have lead one to become a Republican, much less Trump's VP.
Grew up with these people in Cincinnati Was a fan of Jaydot and his book prior to reading your review. Brilliant and spot on both as to describing his family and his prescriptions. Kudos to!
I have always been a free trade advocate. I think our open trade policy was the main driver in the enormous reduction of poverty world wide. Further, protectionist policies are often corrupt, expensive and have negative consequences (for example, steel tariffs increase the cost of American made industrial goods).
However, when we government has a policy that results in less demand for working class people and then runs a policy of mass immigration that increases the supply of those people's competitors that is just doubling down. Not surprising that the injured groups are disgruntled.
Second, I have known a lot of lefties who say they care a lot about class but have never let the fact that a majority of working class people (who they claim to care about) are pro Trump or pro Brexit bother them. I don't think that many lefties actually know any working class people.
Yes, balancing the supply and demand for capital to keep an economy on an even keel is tricky. We usually think of "capital" first as the money needed to, secondly in turn, buy the physical capital (machines, facilities, tools, etc.), but it is also used to buy the human capital of skilled and unskilled work forces, necessary to design, install, use, maintain, and repair the physical versions (plus HR, Finance, and other pink collar skills needed to support and pay the blue color ones.) This applies inside the factory and in the wider society.
So we must support free trade because it helps foreigners and the cost to our own working class is acceptable as collateral damage. If we're not looking out for our own, then who is? Are other nations expected to be looking out for the US working class?
This is a scenario that economists always focus on. The greater good, while glossing over the very real harm perpetrated on the lower socioeconomic classes. Competition is inevitable and there will always be some losers, but the scale, scope and speed has been swift and the destruction thorough. Who is looking out for them Larry? Let our poor eat cake. The hundreds of millions of impoverished Chinese are certainly much better off but is sacrificing our own working class is the price we should pay to help the world?
That thought did occur to me, despite finding the consumption of this kind of material (although the likes of Vance and Rob Henderson are stylistically restrained) almost voyeuristic.
My family are from the exact same two towns as his, Breathit Kentucky and Middletown Ohio. It's wild how similar his family life was to my own. But of my great grandmother's 10 kids who moved to Middletown, only 1 son ended up producing a degenerate family like Vance's. The others moved elsewhere and prospered financially and socially/emotionally. But 1:10 odds of addiction, domestic violence, premature death (my uncle killed someone in a bar fight, his baby mamma was murdered a few years ago, and my mom was a long term addict who died at 54 of a stroke) is still profoundly bad odds. Vance's hard nosed look at the cultural issues was right on, sure the industrial towns slowed down. But the steal mill in Middletown can't hire enough people, they've been desperate for years for applicants who can pass drug tests! They pay well, give raises etc. Unfortunately the honor culture has held these people back and they're just getting more of that via Trump. They don't care about policy because "honor" matters more, saving face matters more when you know you're actually kind of a loser. Don't get me wrong, I love my family. But the dysfunctional ones are kind of losers- they can't regulate their emotions and are proud of it. Hard to be successful in the modern world with that attitude. Actually reminds me a bit of some of the pathologies within Arab culture. Any culture that prioritizes saving face, honor and aggression over practicality and moderation is going to suffer eventually. I haven't watched the movie, can't bring myself to, but I hope it kept the finger pointed where it ultimately belongs, at the individuals involved and not society, the government etc.
" ... can't hire enough [qualified] people..." that is a point and insight that is not brought forth as often as it should be. Your other comments about honor and Arab culture also add depth to this overall discussion. And an aspect of "Appalachian" culture of which I was not aware.
There are a number of threads in the warp and woof of an economy, but I am surprised no one has yet mentioned the major attraction to our domestic industries of foreign wage scales being (having been) much lower, even to the level of trading off over the greater transport costs [and I keep seeing ocean transport is considered the cheapest type available, so not all that much cost added?]. Add in the attention the CCP paid to stealing IP and ginning up their manufacturing base (both facility and people skills), and our domestic suppliers were losing out big time. But the money people and the flawed foreign policy types were in control, as the "anywheres".
The other aspects of Arab/Islamic "honor - shame" cultures leading to honor killings of daughters, sisters, nieces, cousins, wives, et al. is so foreign to the Judeo-Christian culture that we don't realize they do not entertain the concept "that all people are created equal" and acknowledge the social and political benefits that are derived from that outlook.
Perhaps you should write your own version of this book's theme? Exploring the honor culture aspect would probably be a real eye-opener for many people. Having other books exploring this theme would add "substance" to Vance's role in politics, being supported by further evidence, etc. (??)
My family are from the exact same two towns as his, Breathit Kentucky and Middletown Ohio. It's wild how similar his family life was to my own. But of my great grandmother's 10 kids who moved to Middletown, only 1 son ended up producing a degenerate family like Vance's. The others moved elsewhere and prospered financially and socially/emotionally. But 1:10 odds of addiction, domestic violence, premature death (my uncle killed someone in a bar fight, his baby mamma was murdered a few years ago, and my mom was a long term addict who died at 54 of a stroke) is still profoundly bad odds. Vance's hard nosed look at the cultural issues was right on, sure the industrial towns slowed down. But the steal mill in Middletown can't hire enough people, they've been desperate for years for applicants who can pass drug tests! They pay well, give raises etc. Unfortunately the honor culture has held these people back and they're just getting more of that via Trump. They don't care about policy because "honor" matters more, saving face matters more when you know you're actually kind of a loser. Don't get me wrong, I love my family. But the dysfunctional ones are kind of losers- they can't regulate their emotions and are proud of it. Hard to be successful in the modern world with that attitude. Actually reminds me a bit of some of the pathologies within Arab culture. Any culture that prioritizes saving face, honor and aggression over practicality and moderation is going to suffer eventually. I haven't watched the movie, can't bring myself to, but I hope it kept the finger pointed where it ultimately belongs, at the individuals involved and not society, the government etc.
My family are from the exact same two towns as his, Breathit Kentucky and Middletown Ohio. It's wild how similar his family life was to my own. But of my great grandmother's 10 kids who moved to Middletown, only 1 son ended up producing a degenerate family like Vance's. The others moved elsewhere and prospered financially and socially/emotionally. But 1:10 odds of addiction, domestic violence, premature death (my uncle killed someone in a bar fight, his baby mamma was murdered a few years ago, and my mom was a long term addict who died at 54 of a stroke) is still profoundly bad odds. Vance's hard nosed look at the cultural issues was right on, sure the industrial towns slowed down. But the steal mill in Middletown can't hire enough people, they've been desperate for years for applicants who can pass drug tests! They pay well, give raises etc. Unfortunately the honor culture has held these people back and they're just getting more of that via Trump. They don't care about policy because "honor" matters more, saving face matters more when you know you're actually kind of a loser. Don't get me wrong, I love my family. But the dysfunctional ones are kind of losers- they can't regulate their emotions and are proud of it. Hard to be successful in the modern world with that attitude. Actually reminds me a bit of some of the pathologies within Arab culture. Any culture that prioritizes saving face, honor and aggression over practicality and moderation is going to suffer eventually. I haven't watched the movie, can't bring myself to, but I hope it kept the finger pointed where it ultimately belongs, at the individuals involved and not society, the government etc.
This piece has been widely shared around the internet, and your comments are great!
Note: you only need to leave your comment once—I will see it, Substack sends me notifications. I have quite a lot on at the moment so any comments from me may be a bit slow, but I do read every one.
Your comments have all come through—it’s fine!
As I said on the Twit yesterday, wonderful coverage of his book, Helen.
Policy makers pushed industry out of the US and the UK by a number of measures, each with good objectives. Chief among them were the punitive approach to environmental regulation and payroll taxes. The former ignored the real benefits of the polluting industries. The latter reduced the marginal value of labor, particularly at the low end.
I fear the former will be the most damaging. In the UK we've just got rid of the last of our steel manufacturing. At a time when war is looming, we've removed our ability to manufacture the most important material for equipment. I'm sure this will end well.
Don't worry, no stress.
China is producing massive amounts of steel; they can sort out all you need!
A new US artillery ammunition plant required a hydraulic press, which was sourced from a Turkish company. The robots in the plant are made by a German company...which is owned by a Chinese company. See
Turks and Chinese, Help us Make the Ammunition
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/71147.html
I doubt that environmental regulations had a lot to do with the declining share of manufacturing in US/UK. I do not doubt that many are not cost effective, but the scale of the change demands something bigger, like fiscal deficits that required the Fed to have higher interest rates that attracted more foreign financial capital that overvalued the dollar and depressed exports.
There are two sides to this, one to your point about not being cost effective goes back to the unions and the thatcher/raegan era. Some industries were indeed not cost effective on their own merit and kept alive by greedy union bosses and corrupt politicians. But todays point is the current closures are being done to 'reduce carbon footprint'. The most recent example is talbot steel, Tata the parent company have closed it due to regulations making it 'too expensive' while politicians dance about reducing our 'carbon footprint'. What they've actually done is relocated the exact same plant to India where there's ,more relaxed regs, cheaper (read slave) wages, and are now shipping the same steel back to Britain. Thats a net increase in carbon output due to shipping but of course thats not the point. NIMBY green in name only idiocy.
Cost effectiveness is not a primary consideration for national security. Especially when it comes to manufacturing food, clothing, military equipment, ammunition and logistcs.
100% agree and would only comment to add energy to that list.
Lots of folks......Trump's Forgotten People........grow up like Vance did and the pot is boiling.
Unfortunately, they will be the biggest losers from the growth stagnation policies Trump is talking about: tax cuts and deficits, legal immigration restrictions, and more trade restriction.
I would ask you to explain the logic underlying that conclusion but considering we've had stagflation under 4 years of the opposite policies to your trump proposal I'll just let the evidence speak for itself.
Interesting piece. He sounds like a very interesting man to have as VP.
I know what Brexit is and I know who Trump is. But what, or who, is Hanson?
Presumably Pauline Hanson, the Marine LePen of Australia.
Yes, although Pauline Hanson’s background is closer to Vance’s than Le Pen’s (as in, genuinely working-class and not to the—political—manor born like Le Pen).
I thought you were referring to Victor Davis Hanson, at the Hoover Institute.
My USA bias (and ignorance) coming through - sorry :-(
VDH has always been "sort of prominent" but has gotten even more so lately.
Ah, thanks. I looked up 'Hanson' on Google and all I could find was a fresh-faced trio of musical brothers. I doubted it was them. Now you have told me who it is, I vaguely remember Pauline Hanson from a few years ago.
I thought of them too and thought it was quite the rhetorical flourish to somehow rope them into this.
Vance has bridged the Somewhere/Anywhere divide, and that may be his singular political achievement to date.
If only we had someone in power in the UK to do the same. Here's to Farage 2029...
Great insight Helen <3. I knew nothing about Vance until I read this and it paints a very clear picture. In terms of ruling dynamics I would argue trump-Vance is the high-low teaming up against the middle.
I would say perhaps against the upper middle, but there are plenty of LIV's across the socio-economic spectrum. And even when they are not exactly LIV's, they may still have TDS!
Thanks, that is informative. I know nothing about him but listened to one interview clip. He has disturbing views about women and abortion and baby boys. Abortion in cases of rape or incest shouldn't happen because an inconvenience for the woman is not equivalent to the right to a baby boys to survive.
I might have less pause about that if he hadn't specified baby boys. My mind then goes to the imaginary bill... after amniocentesis, the rape victim may get an abortion if the fetus is DNA female but is not allowed to get an abortion if the fetus is DNA male.
What if the baby is being exposed to endocrine disrupting hormones in utero and is gender dyshporic/ trans male or female? Can the raped woman have an abortion or not? .....
The "pause" that Rust Belt cities should have given is real but misplaced.
There were always going to be downsides for people, regions and industries whose livelihoods we affected by technological changes that made is cheaper to import low productivity manufactures abroad. This was then put on steroids by the decision of China to join the world economy. (The decision to grant China MFN status by joining the WTO was a detail that did not wag the de-dog.) But this kind of challenge coud have been no more than a hiccough if the US had good (expansive) monetary and (low deficit) fiscal policies at the time of transition. That kind of economy would have had faster growth and a smaller trade deficits if not a surplus, with exports of new manufactures offsetting the decline in those affected by imports.
The policies that undermined manufactured export growth were exacerbated by the systemic focus of the US in trade negotiations on reducing foreign barriers to payments for US trademark and intellectual property over barriers to US exports of manufactures. (We were pretty aggressive on agricultural exports.)
Nevertheless, these sins of omission should not have lead one to become a Republican, much less Trump's VP.
Grew up with these people in Cincinnati Was a fan of Jaydot and his book prior to reading your review. Brilliant and spot on both as to describing his family and his prescriptions. Kudos to!
A couple of comments.
I have always been a free trade advocate. I think our open trade policy was the main driver in the enormous reduction of poverty world wide. Further, protectionist policies are often corrupt, expensive and have negative consequences (for example, steel tariffs increase the cost of American made industrial goods).
However, when we government has a policy that results in less demand for working class people and then runs a policy of mass immigration that increases the supply of those people's competitors that is just doubling down. Not surprising that the injured groups are disgruntled.
Second, I have known a lot of lefties who say they care a lot about class but have never let the fact that a majority of working class people (who they claim to care about) are pro Trump or pro Brexit bother them. I don't think that many lefties actually know any working class people.
I agree with all three of your points.
Yes, balancing the supply and demand for capital to keep an economy on an even keel is tricky. We usually think of "capital" first as the money needed to, secondly in turn, buy the physical capital (machines, facilities, tools, etc.), but it is also used to buy the human capital of skilled and unskilled work forces, necessary to design, install, use, maintain, and repair the physical versions (plus HR, Finance, and other pink collar skills needed to support and pay the blue color ones.) This applies inside the factory and in the wider society.
So we must support free trade because it helps foreigners and the cost to our own working class is acceptable as collateral damage. If we're not looking out for our own, then who is? Are other nations expected to be looking out for the US working class?
This is a scenario that economists always focus on. The greater good, while glossing over the very real harm perpetrated on the lower socioeconomic classes. Competition is inevitable and there will always be some losers, but the scale, scope and speed has been swift and the destruction thorough. Who is looking out for them Larry? Let our poor eat cake. The hundreds of millions of impoverished Chinese are certainly much better off but is sacrificing our own working class is the price we should pay to help the world?
Great stuff as always Helen. I'd highly recommend reading the novel Winter's Bone by Daniel Woodrell which the film is based one.
That thought did occur to me, despite finding the consumption of this kind of material (although the likes of Vance and Rob Henderson are stylistically restrained) almost voyeuristic.
My family are from the exact same two towns as his, Breathit Kentucky and Middletown Ohio. It's wild how similar his family life was to my own. But of my great grandmother's 10 kids who moved to Middletown, only 1 son ended up producing a degenerate family like Vance's. The others moved elsewhere and prospered financially and socially/emotionally. But 1:10 odds of addiction, domestic violence, premature death (my uncle killed someone in a bar fight, his baby mamma was murdered a few years ago, and my mom was a long term addict who died at 54 of a stroke) is still profoundly bad odds. Vance's hard nosed look at the cultural issues was right on, sure the industrial towns slowed down. But the steal mill in Middletown can't hire enough people, they've been desperate for years for applicants who can pass drug tests! They pay well, give raises etc. Unfortunately the honor culture has held these people back and they're just getting more of that via Trump. They don't care about policy because "honor" matters more, saving face matters more when you know you're actually kind of a loser. Don't get me wrong, I love my family. But the dysfunctional ones are kind of losers- they can't regulate their emotions and are proud of it. Hard to be successful in the modern world with that attitude. Actually reminds me a bit of some of the pathologies within Arab culture. Any culture that prioritizes saving face, honor and aggression over practicality and moderation is going to suffer eventually. I haven't watched the movie, can't bring myself to, but I hope it kept the finger pointed where it ultimately belongs, at the individuals involved and not society, the government etc.
" ... can't hire enough [qualified] people..." that is a point and insight that is not brought forth as often as it should be. Your other comments about honor and Arab culture also add depth to this overall discussion. And an aspect of "Appalachian" culture of which I was not aware.
There are a number of threads in the warp and woof of an economy, but I am surprised no one has yet mentioned the major attraction to our domestic industries of foreign wage scales being (having been) much lower, even to the level of trading off over the greater transport costs [and I keep seeing ocean transport is considered the cheapest type available, so not all that much cost added?]. Add in the attention the CCP paid to stealing IP and ginning up their manufacturing base (both facility and people skills), and our domestic suppliers were losing out big time. But the money people and the flawed foreign policy types were in control, as the "anywheres".
The other aspects of Arab/Islamic "honor - shame" cultures leading to honor killings of daughters, sisters, nieces, cousins, wives, et al. is so foreign to the Judeo-Christian culture that we don't realize they do not entertain the concept "that all people are created equal" and acknowledge the social and political benefits that are derived from that outlook.
Perhaps you should write your own version of this book's theme? Exploring the honor culture aspect would probably be a real eye-opener for many people. Having other books exploring this theme would add "substance" to Vance's role in politics, being supported by further evidence, etc. (??)
My family are from the exact same two towns as his, Breathit Kentucky and Middletown Ohio. It's wild how similar his family life was to my own. But of my great grandmother's 10 kids who moved to Middletown, only 1 son ended up producing a degenerate family like Vance's. The others moved elsewhere and prospered financially and socially/emotionally. But 1:10 odds of addiction, domestic violence, premature death (my uncle killed someone in a bar fight, his baby mamma was murdered a few years ago, and my mom was a long term addict who died at 54 of a stroke) is still profoundly bad odds. Vance's hard nosed look at the cultural issues was right on, sure the industrial towns slowed down. But the steal mill in Middletown can't hire enough people, they've been desperate for years for applicants who can pass drug tests! They pay well, give raises etc. Unfortunately the honor culture has held these people back and they're just getting more of that via Trump. They don't care about policy because "honor" matters more, saving face matters more when you know you're actually kind of a loser. Don't get me wrong, I love my family. But the dysfunctional ones are kind of losers- they can't regulate their emotions and are proud of it. Hard to be successful in the modern world with that attitude. Actually reminds me a bit of some of the pathologies within Arab culture. Any culture that prioritizes saving face, honor and aggression over practicality and moderation is going to suffer eventually. I haven't watched the movie, can't bring myself to, but I hope it kept the finger pointed where it ultimately belongs, at the individuals involved and not society, the government etc.
My family are from the exact same two towns as his, Breathit Kentucky and Middletown Ohio. It's wild how similar his family life was to my own. But of my great grandmother's 10 kids who moved to Middletown, only 1 son ended up producing a degenerate family like Vance's. The others moved elsewhere and prospered financially and socially/emotionally. But 1:10 odds of addiction, domestic violence, premature death (my uncle killed someone in a bar fight, his baby mamma was murdered a few years ago, and my mom was a long term addict who died at 54 of a stroke) is still profoundly bad odds. Vance's hard nosed look at the cultural issues was right on, sure the industrial towns slowed down. But the steal mill in Middletown can't hire enough people, they've been desperate for years for applicants who can pass drug tests! They pay well, give raises etc. Unfortunately the honor culture has held these people back and they're just getting more of that via Trump. They don't care about policy because "honor" matters more, saving face matters more when you know you're actually kind of a loser. Don't get me wrong, I love my family. But the dysfunctional ones are kind of losers- they can't regulate their emotions and are proud of it. Hard to be successful in the modern world with that attitude. Actually reminds me a bit of some of the pathologies within Arab culture. Any culture that prioritizes saving face, honor and aggression over practicality and moderation is going to suffer eventually. I haven't watched the movie, can't bring myself to, but I hope it kept the finger pointed where it ultimately belongs, at the individuals involved and not society, the government etc.